Are We Big Enough to Tour America?
I was talking recently to someone in a band that has been around long enough to know better, and the subject of America came up in the way it usually does, slightly tentatively, as if mentioning it too loudly might make it real. America is not a creative question. It is an administrative one. It involves flights, visas, vans, hotels, and the quiet understanding that enthusiasm does not pay for fuel. The real question is not whether you want to tour America, but whether anyone there would notice if you did.
The Streaming Illusion
Most bands begin by checking streaming numbers, which is understandable because they are easy to find and reassuring to look at. You can see listeners in the United States, sometimes thousands of them, scattered across a large and comforting map. The problem is that streaming is a very low-commitment activity. People stream music while doing other things, or while doing nothing in particular, and it does not necessarily mean they care enough to leave the house on a Tuesday night. Touring, on the other hand, requires intent, and intent behaves very differently to background listening.
What Real Interest Looks Like
When people are genuinely interested in a band, they tend to act in small but telling ways. They look things up. They visit the website more than once. They spend time reading rather than glancing. They come back after a release, not just during it. This kind of behaviour is not glamorous and it does not make for impressive screenshots, but it is the sort of evidence that helps answer uncomfortable questions honestly. It is also the sort of thing that most bands have never really been able to see clearly.
The Problem with Inference
What tends to happen instead is that bands infer popularity from tour history. You know you are big in France because you have played France a lot. You know you do well in Poland because you keep going back. America is harder, because the distance raises the stakes. There might be interest, but where exactly, and how deep, and whether it is enough to justify the cost, are questions that usually get answered only after the money has already been spent.
Evidence Over Faith
A touring decision should not feel like a leap of faith. It should feel slightly dull, supported by evidence that suggests people are already paying attention rather than merely stumbling across you. America will still be there next year, and the year after that. The useful thing is knowing whether there is a real audience waiting, and where they actually are, before you find out the expensive way.